避险货币走强：地缘政治紧张与AI技术突破的双重影响

摘要： 1月27日欧洲时段，日元和瑞郎等避险货币大幅升值，创下近一个月来的最高水平。美元兑日元跌超1.3%，美元兑瑞郎跌0.8%。 initially, the strengthening...

1月27日欧洲时段，日元和瑞郎等避险货币大幅升值，创下近一个月来的最高水平。美元兑日元跌超1.3%，美元兑瑞郎跌0.8%。 initially, the strengthening of safe-haven currencies was driven by heightened tensions between the U.S. and Colombia, after Colombia refused entry to two U.S. military planes carrying deported immigrants. However, the situation de-escalated later when Colombia agreed to accept the immigrants. Subsequently, the release of DeepSeek-R1, a cost-effective AI model from Chinese quantitative giant HUANFANG, triggered another surge in risk aversion. This model’s performance rivals OpenAI’s top models, while its training costs are significantly lower, raising questions about the huge investments of U.S. tech giants in AI. The pre-market trading session saw a sharp drop in the prices of Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom (over 10%), and the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), a measure of market fear, jumped nearly 40%. Adding to the market unease was the Bank of Japan’s recent interest rate hike to 0.5%, its highest level since October 2008. Analysts predict further rate hikes if inflation doesn’t consistently remain at the 2% target. Recalling the market crash following a similar rate hike last year, the current situation reflects the complex interplay of geopolitical risks and technological advancements in shaping global financial markets.